Global Economy at an Inflection Point Again: Christian Urbina on Fiscal Strategy, Global Trade, and Investment Planning

In a "Declaration of Economic Independence," the United States has imposed at least 10% tariffs on almost all imports since April 2. This policy shift has reverberated through international markets, prompted swift responses from major trade partners, and shaken investor confidence. This climate of rising costs, heightened volatility, and growing uncertainty raises a question. How can investors and savers protect their wealth and plan for the future amid seismic change?

Christian Urbina, President, CEO, and Chief Investment Officer of Prosperitus Wealth Advisors, LLC, believes this is a moment that demands clarity, strategy, and thoughtful action. The seasoned financial professional, with nearly two decades of experience advising individuals and families, aims to help Americans understand the structural shifts taking place in the global economy and to offer a framework for how investors and everyday savers can respond widely.

Urbina, a US Army veteran, holds degrees in Finance and Applied Economics. He earned his Certified Financial Planner (CFP) designation in 2012 and progressed to Level III of the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) program. 

He has stood out in the space by taking complex macroeconomic developments and translating them into impactful guidance. His insights reflect technical expertise and a profound understanding of the human side of finance—the fears, goals, and decisions that define financial planning in uncertain times.

This depth of perspective is relevant today as global markets reel from newly imposed trade tariffs and their ripple effects. Much of the public discourse focuses on short-term implications. Urbina invites individuals and entities to zoom out and consider the broader forces at play.

Urbina notes that as of early 2025, the US national debt stands at over $36 trillion. According to the Congressional Budget Office, budget deficits are projected to increase annually and reach $2.5 trillion by 2035. Urbina points to mandatory spending on programs like Social Security and Medicare, and rising interest payments on existing debt as the primary drivers. He warns that this trajectory is no longer a domestic concern but a global stakes game.

"In Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order, Ray Dalio, a renowned investor, implies that unchecked debt burdens can trigger systemic financial instability and diminish the influence of a nation on the global stage, and I wholeheartedly agree," says Urbina. He argues that adding to the pressure are proposed tax cuts that could remove $5.3 to $6 trillion from federal revenues over the next decade.

Urbina remarks. He believes these figures are unsustainable.

Moreover, the recent introduction of sweeping tariffs is a long-term fiscal pivot. Urbina estimates that if trade volumes remain stable, a 10% blanket tariff could generate $1.5 to $2 trillion over a decade, with targeted tariffs on China contributing another $2 to $2.5 trillion. This new revenue stream could provide a buffer against mounting deficits, though at the cost of higher consumer prices and economic friction.

These moves pose consequences, however. Urbina states that the financial markets have already started to react. The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio is currently hovering around 32. This level signals a potentially overvalued market, increasing the likelihood of a correction in the range of 20-30%, should volatility persist.

Meanwhile, inflation, already a concern for many households, could inch higher. It could rise to 3-4% annually, with tariffs alone potentially adding 1-2% in consumer costs each year. Urbina suggests that such price increases could translate into billions in added expenses for American families. Lower-income households would then be disproportionately affected. The weakening US dollar could add to the problems. Urbina notes that it's likely for the dollar to lose a significant percentage of its value if investor confidence in US debt sustainability continues to erode.

The issues seem to be never-ending, with the labor market also in flux. Some manufacturing sectors may see marginal gains. Still, broader economic disruptions tied to tariffs could result in hundreds of thousands or even millions of job losses, particularly in logistics, retail, and trade-exposed industries. "We need to reimagine our fiscal priorities given these developments," says Urbina. 

How should investors and households respond? Urbina advocates for strategic calm amid the noise. This means building diversified, inflation-aware portfolios that are tailored to long-term objectives. Low-volatility equities, real assets like commodities or infrastructure, and inflation-protected securities can all play a role. For those with significant exposure, hedging against currency risk and evaluating the quality of fixed-income holdings is critical.

Urbina also sees potential in establishing a sovereign wealth fund, a public investment vehicle that could channel tariff revenues into long-term, productive assets. Countries like Norway and Singapore have demonstrated the benefits of such funds in buffering against economic shocks and funding future obligations.

Yet, Urbina cautions that even this strategy must contend with the larger challenge of elevated debt levels. He stresses that the key isn't to wait for perfect conditions but to prepare now. "A strong financial plan isn't just for surviving volatility. It's to use it to clarify your goals and chart a smarter course forward," he remarks.

Christian E. Urbina offers insightful guidance at an uncertain time. His approach, characterized by data, discipline, and decades of advisory work, serves as a compass for those who desire to navigate the complex economic landscape.

Disclosures:

The views presented are based on publicly available data and reflect the professional opinion of Christian Urbina, President of Prosperitus Wealth Advisors, a Registered Investment Adviser. These insights are for educational purposes only and do not constitute personalized investment advice. Readers should consult their own financial advisor before making any decisions. Projections discussed are hypothetical, subject to risk, and influenced by factors such as trade volatility and fiscal policy changes. Prosperitus Wealth Advisors advises clients on related issues, but neither the firm nor Urbina holds a direct policy role.

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Created by Callum Turner

Published 04/16/25 AT 3:09 PM EDT

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